The Uncertainty Problem

There is a specific aspect of the psychology of change that deserves particular attention, because it has significant implications for how leaders communicate in volatile environments.

Humans do not respond equally to all forms of threat. Our brain has a particular sensitivity to one kind of threat that turns out to be more cognitively costly than almost any other: not knowing.

Research has shown that uncertainty, the absence of clear information about what is and what will happen produces greater psychological strain than definitively bad news. Your brain would rather hear clearly negative news than sit in ambiguous limbo.

Ambiguity requires our threat-detection system to remain perpetually on, scanning for signals, trying to resolve the uncertainty. This is cognitively exhausting and corrosive to performance.

This insight has practical consequences for how leaders behave during times of change. When leaders stop communicating because they don't yet have all the answers, the situation is still evolving, or because they are trying to protect people from the bad news, they are, making things much worse.

Every gap in communication is filled with rumor, and rumors tend to run hot. The gap does not produce calm; it most often gets filled with a negative interpretation.

The role of change leadership in an uncertain environment is not to have all the answers. It's to communicate genuinely and consistently, especially when the content of the communication is that you don't yet know. I don't have clarity on the timeline yet, but here is what I do know. I'll share more as soon as I have it. 

This displays understanding and empathy and is calming in a way that silence never is. It signals that the leader is aware and cares. It gives the cognitive threat-detection system a moment of rest.

It feels counterintuitive but is very powerful: check-in and touch base more when you know less. Asking how people are and listening. Sharing honest updates on what you know, what you don't know, and when you expect to know and share more.

The behaviors that frustrate you most - the argumentation, withdrawal, resistance to evidence are not personality or character flaws. They're predictable responses to threat and uncertainty. Leaning into frequent, genuine check-ins and a lot of listening to what those you wish to influence is a change leadership superpower.

This doesn't mean accepting negative behaviors indefinitely or excusing poor performance. It means starting from a position of empathy & understanding rather than frustration, because that posture is far more likely to produce the behavioral change you need.